Biggest auto surprise of 2015

Some of the biggest brands in the automotive industry have been the subject of scandal. Think back to Ford's choice to save some pennies on Pinto fuel tank location for instance, or more recently Toyota opting not to recall cars for 'sudden unintended acceleration'... whatever that meant.

Volkswagen – no stranger to scandal itself – is embroiled once more in controversy. The 'Dieselgate' affair resulted from findings by an American university that select diesel-engined cars operated differently under test conditions than during normal driving.

While Dieselgate has been covered in great detail elsewhere in this year's news, and we think we know all there is to know about this scandal, it's hard to concede that anything else occurring in 2015 produced a bigger shock to the global automotive industry and its watchers.

Dieselgate created an impact with the same scope and subtlety as a thermonuclear ballistic missile – one of those multi-warhead jobbies. Like a multi-warhead MIRV, Dieselgate just kept coming, and across a wide front. The scandal has been chock-full of nasty surprises for the company's customers and regulatory bodies, and for Volkswagen's own staff and executives too.

It even came as a surprise to the research team at the University of West Virginia, which originally intended to prove how clean and efficient Volkswagen diesels were. Imagine their surprise to learn that their test subjects were anything but...

How could Volkswagen have blundered so badly? Who could possibly have thought that pulling the wool over the eyes of the American EPA would be a good idea? How could they have expected this news not to surface at some point? Who were involved (knowingly), and why were execs left in the dark... presuming they were? Will there be criminal law ramifications for responsible executives?

Who or what will be the next affected? We now know that V6 diesels were also 'cheaters'. What will be the ultimate fall-out and cost to the manufacturer and the consumer alike? What sort of impact will this affair have on the future viability of diesel power?

The questions keep coming and no one seems to have an answer. Current owners of affected vehicles are arguably driving around in cars that are not compliant with Australian Design Rules.

What will be the consequences of a crash if the VW driver is found to be at fault? Will that person be charged with driving an unroadworthy vehicle for an otherwise unexceptional bingle? Will insurance necessarily cover the cost to the owner of repairs in those circumstances – as well as the cost of repairing or applying knock-for-knock for a third-party vehicle?

How will Volkswagen redress the problems arising? There have been plenty of theories floated about the cost of buying back the affected vehicles from the owners, versus paying for a recall on a massive scale.

It's a sign of the deep-seated confusion within Volkswagen itself that local representatives of the brand and Audi have been struggling to understand the situation in full. This was never more obvious than when Audi Australia declared that the 'defeat device' software was inactive, only to admit a month later that the software was actually operational on cars in Australia.

There is a school of thought that Dieselgate will have few long-term repercussions for Volkswagen. Many owners will be only vaguely aware of Volkswagen's corporate malfeasance. Most aren't 'car people', so the whole basis for outrage will be lost on them. The calamity is already receding from prominence in general news, overtaken by IS atrocities in Paris and other parts of the world.

Some have indicated that Volkswagen is 'too big to fail', which doesn't mean it can't fail, but like American merchant banks, shouldn't be allowed to fail. Governments in Germany, China and the USA will be wary of punitive measures that could lead to plant closures and staff lay-offs.

Some pundits suggest that governments around the world will go easy on the manufacturer for the sake of lower unemployment figures, and the class action law suits that are popping up globally will take so long to decide that VW will be able to build up a huge war chest in the meantime.

And Volkswagen execs will likely spend the next two or three years taking it in turn to apologise at international motor shows.

Not so surprising is the way the entire affair has been framed within an indignant view of VW's ill-principled behaviour. Yet no one has died from the extra NOx emissions. No one has died from the software inadvertently entering test mode while the car was accelerating hard across a busy intersection. There appear to be no safety issues per se.

Volkswagen may not be the only company to circumvent emissions legislation, but as the 'pioneer' it's VW that will cop the worst of the backlash from the general public. Will we learn of other underhanded companies using similar tactics? Don't expect that to be the surprise of the year in 2016...

Honourable mentions for surprise of the year:

>> Haval arguing it has established a sustainable business model to sell its Chinese-built luxury SUVs in Australia.

>> American Special Vehicles pricing its converted RAM pick-up trucks from $140,000.

>> Lexus Australia claiming it can't mount a business case for a diesel LX.