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John Carey2 Jan 2009
NEWS

Electric future

Goodbye petrol, it's been nice burning you. Here's what to expect from the imminent electric age

Zap! Goodbye petrol

Electric is the answer, if oil is the awkward question. Almost every major issue with the car is either solved or mitigated by swapping crankshaft kW for power grid kilowatt hours. Check off the consequences of such a change...

Electric spells the eventual end of our dependence on expensive oil, much of it imported, for road-transport energy. The environment, as well as the economy, would benefit, too. The electric car can deliver reduced - potentially even zero - emissions of global-warming carbon dioxide from driving. And from the driver's point of view, there's the promise of lower, and more stable, operating costs. The switch, if made, would be the biggest thing to happen to the car in the last 100 years. So, are you ready for The Car, version 2.0?

The electric challenge to internal combustion won't happen tomorrow, or the day after, but it is imminent. Four years isn't really that long...

A series of recent developments mark 2012 as the beginning of the end for oil in Australia. This is when cars that run wholly or mainly on electricity begin to arrive, and is also the date set for the launch of a business that aims to set up the infrastructure needed to support electric car users, plus a range of high-tech services to make them user-friendly. First, the cars...

At the Australian International Motor Show in October, Holden announced its plan to sell GM's Volt plug-in hybrid here from 2012. It has a 65km range on electric power from its lithium-ion battery. Drivers who need to cover a lesser distance than this each day can recharge overnight. For longer distances its on-board generator, powered by a 1.4-litre petrol engine, can provide battery recharge on the move.

Nissan has plans to import its purpose-designed, battery-powered five-seat electric vehicle (as yet unnamed) from 2012, when large-scale production commences in Japan. With a heftier lithium-ion battery pack than the Volt, Nissan promises a range between recharges of at least 160km.

Mercedes-Benz is also working on battery-only electric cars, like Nissan's EV, although the schedule for their roll-out here isn't yet confirmed. Mercedes-owned Smart will build 1000 lithium-ion battery-powered versions of its two-seater ForTwo, beginning next year. Mercedes-Benz Oz hopes to score an allocation of 100 of the ForTwoEDs (for electric drive).

Mercedes is also working on electric versions of its A-Class and B-Class, with overseas sales scheduled to begin in 2010. Whether they'll be sold here depends on strategic decisions yet to be made at Mercedes-Benz headquarters in Stuttgart. Benz's local subsidiary is hopeful...

Also hopeful is Mitsubishi. The company already has a battery-powered version of its tiny but innovative i kei car, called iMiEV (for Mitsubishi intelligent electric vehicle) whirring around the streets of Japanese cities as part of a large-scale trial. Production of this current model is planned for 2010. Mitsubishi Oz is eager to import the electric version of next-gen i, likely due around 2012. Unlike the present i, the new one should be designed to conform with Aussie government car safety regulations, meaning it could be sold here.

Toyota, too, could join in. At the Paris Autosalon in October, company president Katsuaki Watanabe promised a 2010 launch for a plug-in version of the next-generation Prius petrol-electric hybrid. While its lithium-ion batteries will deliver a substantial electric-motor-only range, Toyota is yet to reveal whether its car will be able to match the 65km of GM's plug-in Volt. Toyota Oz executives are confident the plug-in Prius will be imported, although timing remains uncertain.

With the queue of wholly or mainly electric-powered cars headed for Australia growing, we're going to need some hardware and specialist service providers to support the early EV adopters. In late October Better Place - a young company with close ties to the Nissan-Renault alliance - announced its plan to begin building EV infrastructure in Australia. Yes, from 2012...

With EVs and plug-in hybrids beginning to appear on car company launch schedules, and the emergence of outfits which see commercial potential in serving the needs of those who will buy them, the message is clear. EVs are coming. Here. And soon. Like it or not...

Some obvious questions can't be answered right now. How much, for instance, will electric cars and plug-in hybrids cost? They won't be cheap, that's for sure. Relatively small production volumes (at first) and the high cost of batteries will see to that. But making credible price predictions is impossible, in part because makers are weighing up the alternatives. Leasing vehicles is one option (although insisting on their return at the expiry of the agreement could lead to another instalment of the dunderhead doco 'Who Killed the Electric Car?'). Outright sale is another. Or makers could sell the cars, but lease the batteries. It will be interesting to see which is adopted. Equally interesting will be the success of efforts to raise the capital required to get Better Place up and charging in Oz.

While the unknowns are many, the factors which have brought the electric car to the verge of showroom reality here are clear.

The big one is cheap running costs, which car makers obviously believe will make electric cars and plug-in hybrids irresistibly attractive. And not only to adventurous, technology-loving early adopters.

Exactly how much cheaper is a question that's tough to answer for Australia. Figures from GM for the Volt, when operating on battery power alone, provide some guidance. According to GM vice president for R&D and strategy, Larry Burns, the plug-in hybrid requires eight kilowatt hours for an electric-only range of 65km. With domestic power in Australia typically priced around 10 cents a kilowatt hour this is an 80 cent trip. If the Volt instead had a conventional internal combustion drivetrain it would need 3.8 litres of petrol to drive the same distance, Burns says. This would cost (at current Sydney prices) around $5.70, a little more than seven times as much. With a price difference so large, the appeal is obvious.

The superiority of EVs over conventional cars is accounted for, in large part, by their inherently better efficiency. Electric cars share many technologies already previewed in existing hybrids. The most important is regenerative braking, which recycles the car's kinetic energy as it slows, converting lost motion into electric charge for the battery. It also helps that electric cars naturally do not need to consume energy while standing still, as do the vast majority of internal combustion engine cars.

While the promise of cheap running costs ensures consumer interest in electric cars, recent advances in battery technology have brought practicality to a level manufacturers obviously believe is acceptable. Range is, as ever with electric cars, the killer issue...

The latest generation of lithium-ion batteries are superior to any earlier battery chemistry. They beat lead-acid, nickel-cadmium and nickel-metal hydride (the current choice of hybrid manufacturers) for the amount of energy they can store. The reason is simple. Lithium-ion cells deliver three volts, compared with the 1.2 volts of nickel-based cells. While still far short of the energy in a tank of fossil fuel, the storage capacity of lithium-ion batteries (teamed with the inherent efficiencies of electric propulsion) is sufficient to make the latest electric cars more practical than anything seen before. The 160km range promised for Nissan's EV is obviously adequate for many drivers, much of the time. Even in Australia.

Nissan, with partner NEC, appears to be the leader in lithium-ion tech. It claims an energy density of 140 watt hours per kg for its flat, laminated cells, double that of the cylindrical cells most other firms are still working on.

Francois Bancon, Nissan's French-born general manager of advanced product planning and strategy, believes lithium-ion battery technology is a strong competitive advantage for Nissan. Visiting Australia in October for a presentation to media at the Sydney motor show and a meeting with local, state and federal government representatives on electric cars, he sees the EV age as full of opportunities.

He explains: "Steering by wire, brake by wire - all of this will be available. Which is today difficult because the battery supply that we have in existing cars is not powerful enough.

"We can redefine the packaging and layout of the car, the platform stuff. And this is what we're gonna do," says Bancon, who's been involved in Nissan's recent series of EV concepts, including the Paris show concept NuVu and earlier Mixim, displayed at Sydney.

"You can move the components all around the car. EV gives us huge flexibility," he continues. "When you drive an EV car, you want to communicate to the other [drivers] 'I'm zero emissions. I'm a clean guy'."

EV Queue
Here's the line-up of pure electric (battery-powered) and mainly electric (plug-in hybrid) cars headed for Australian roads:

» Smart ForTwoED
Due: 2010 onwards
Launch status: Probable
Tech: Lithium-ion battery electric
Background: Based on new ForTwo, 160km range

» Mercedes A-Class & B-Class
Due: 2010 onwards
Launch status: Likely
Tech: Battery electric
Background: Little detail available, but both models will fill sandwich-floor chassis of present A-Class and B-Class with batteries

» Nissan EV
Due: 2012
Launch status: Guaranteed
Tech: Lithium-ion battery electric
Background: All-new design, five-seat. Range of at least 160km from batteries developed with partner NEC

» Mitsubishi iMiEV
Due: Around 2012
Launch status: Possible
Tech: Lithium-ion battery electric
Background: Based on next-generation of Mitsubishi's rear-engine, four-seat kei car. Range of at least 160km likely, based on current iMiEV

» GM Volt
Due: 2012
Launch status: Guaranteed
Tech: Plug-in hybrid with lithium-ion batteries
Background: Four-seat sedan with electric-motor-only range of 65km from T-shaped, 170kg lithium-ion battery pack. On-board generator powered by 1.4-litre petrol engine for longer trips

» Toyota Prius plug-in
Due: From 2010
Launch status: Near certain
Tech: Plug-in hybrid with lithium-ion battery
Background: Additional version of new-gen 2009 Prius five-seat hybrid hatch, announced in Paris

GAS UP?
Electric cars and plug-in hybrids may cut running costs, but what effect will they have on carbon dioxide? The good news is there's widespread agreement that the move to electric will cut automotive emissions of the major greenhouse gas. The bad news is that there's variation in the size of the cuts claimed.

The US Electric Power Research Institute, quoted in New Scientist, found that even if the recharge electricity comes from fossil fuels, an EV or plug-in hybrid would bring a big cut in CO comapred with a conventional internal combustion car (but not a current hybrid).

Nissan exec Francois Bancon claims his company's studies have shown a 40 percent reduction in CO for EVs using fossil-fuel electricity. But Nissan is keen to encourage the recharging of their 2012 EV with renewable electricity.

Data on the Volt plug-in hybrid from GM vice-president Larry Burns indicates a CO cut of around 10 percent if the car is run on Australian electricity, around 80 percent of which is generated by coal-fired power stations.

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Written byJohn Carey
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