NEW YORK MOTOR SHOW: Mazda MX-5 Coupe

Mazda is readying a global premiere for the New York International Auto Show in less than two weeks, and our mail is it will be the biggest challenger yet seen from the Japanese car-maker for Toyota's popular 86 coupe.

A letter received today from Mazda's Japanese base tells us to be prepared to "help us blow the lid off at the New York Auto Show" and that "we will unveil something new".

Delivered in a small origami flower, the message said very little else, but there's speculation on MX-5 forums that Mazda is readying a direct competitor for the 86.

Based on its $31,990 starting price alone, Mazda's latest ND-series MX-5 is already a rival for the 86 coupe, which starts at $29,990, even if the ND is available exclusively with a folding soft-top roof.

A hard-top version in the vein of the previous NC MX-5 Roadster Coupe would make it a more direct competitor, even if it's more expensive.

Alternatively, Mazda could be about to hatch its first full-blown fixed-roof coupe or even a 'shooting brake' version of the MX-5, as rendered here by our digital artist.

Or, if Mazda's Big Apple debut is indeed based on the MX-5 at all, it could simply be a bolt-on rigid roof option, as the company offered with the old NA and NB models.

We won't know for sure until the New York show opens on March 23, but given Mazda has all but ruled out a fixed-roof coupe version, our money's on a direct replacement for the retractable hard-topped Roadster Coupe – the only version of the NC MX-5 available here before the new ND arrived.

However, unlike the old MX-5 Roadster Coupe, which was last sold at a cool $47,280, the new one will be much cheaper and lighter, with only a slight increase on the base model's featherweight 1009kg and an expected premium of less than $2000, which would keep it under $35,000.

We expect the folding hard-top version, which will bring a significantly different look to the fabric-top model, to be available in both 1.5- and 2.0-litre form – and perhaps even standard and GT equipment grades -- potentially doubling the number of MX-5 variants in the range to 16.