Almost the moment Holden unveiled its VE and WM ranges in Melbourne last month speculation began regarding the follow-up commercial variants, and the future of the Commodore wagon.

Though the company has confirmed the carry-over VZ range of Utes, Crewman and wagons (pictured) in both two and all-wheel drive form (see separate story here), it has refused to be drawn on details and timing for the next generation of vehicles. In fact, there has been no indication as to when the VZ-based vehicles would be retired totally.

It is known that the VE commercials are well down the development track. However, a decision about a future VE wagon is not as clear cut.

It now seems certain there will be a VE wagon -- Holden chief Denny Mooney and other key Holden spokespeople have all but confirmed the fact. What sort of wagon it will be is now the subject of speculation.

There has been considerable internal debate at Holden over whether to continue with a long-wheelbase load carrier or introduce a 'sportswagon' or Touring-style vehicle on the standard wheelbase.

CarPoint's sources suggest the debate was re-ignited relatively recently after Toyota abandoned the Camry wagon and Mitsubishi killed its Magna wagon last year. Both 'extinctions' potentially open up extra volume for Holden.

Archrival Ford continues to build its BF wagon primarily as a load carrier. That said, the Ford wagon's sales have flattened as a company/fleet vehicle. Nor has it received the same development as the sedan range after Ford directed resources to the Territory.

CarPoint has confirmed that a direction on the next VE Commodore wagon has been locked in, however, Holden remains tightlipped on what that direction is.

It is known that the latest Saab SportCombi wagons were closely assessed as a future direction for Holden -- especially now the Korean-built Holden Captiva SUV (due next month, also pictured) is set to cater for the seven-seat wagon market and a Territory alternative.

CarPoint believes that Holden will follow the lead of the Chrysler 300C Touring with a sporty wagon based on the standard wheelbase (which is now almost as long as a VZ wagon's anyway). The aim would be to attract private wagon buyers who enjoy driving, or a sedan buyer who needed more space. It would provide a stark, sleek contrast with the tall and sometimes clumsy look of SUV wagons

What is likely is that the wagon will not arrive until some time after the VE light commercials. Our tip is that the VE ute will debut at Sydney Motor Show next year (late 2007) possibly with Holden's first six-cylinder turbodiesel engine.

Based on the current wagon, the Adventra is very unlikely to continue in a VE model. In fact, it may be the first of the VZ-based cars to be withdrawn -- especially if the Captiva is a success.