Sometimes it's not what people say, but rather what they don't… Although the automotive media is widely speculating that Ford's new Falcon range, codenamed Orion, will go on sale in March 2008 to coincide with the Melbourne International Motor Show, Ford has never commented on this position -- nor provided a clear indication of timing.

In the face of this stoicism, there is increasing evidence that the Blue Oval's new large car may not hit the showrooms until April or beyond.

Until this month, Ford looked like it was not doing enough for the runout of the current BF Mark II Falcon range. Although this seemed alarming to Ford dealers and fans alike, the timing of the latest round of more extensive runout models starts to make sense if the new model doesn't go on sale until later in 2008.

Ford has just announced the first easily discernible body changes for its XR sedans since 2002. It has also picked the perfect time to announce the Craig Lowndes limited edition XR ute (more here) with a second consecutive Bathurst win in the bag.

If production of the Ford and FPV limited edition Falcons doesn't get into full swing until mid to late-October, there is only November left as a full production month, part of December and a week in January to build these models -- if Orion is to arrive in March, that is. 

Indeed, both Ford and FPV would need to swing over to Orion production in February to ensure adequate launch stock for a March introduction.

When 200 units represents a good month for FPV, there is not enough time within this period to deliver the current F6 R Spec and Cobra limited editions, launch the new FPV Territory with adequate stocks then prepare for a successful launch of all F6 and Boss V8 models based on the Orion.

It also makes little sense for Ford to launch a revised XR sedan for such a short period.

Then there is the timing of the Mondeo's return to Oz to consider.

Ford insiders cite the arrival of the BA Falcon range -- Ford's most important Falcon model up to that point -- as the main reason for the poor sales performance of the first Focus when their 2002 launches were only one month apart. According to Ford, the Focus was overlooked as Ford dealers, media and buyers were swept up with the BA Falcon, causing the Focus to lose vital momentum as a fresh new model.

When the next Falcon and the new Mondeo ranges are both critical to the local company's success, a March launch of the Orion range may prove too soon for the Mondeo to establish its own market presence. 

Given that full Mondeo launch coverage won't hit media outlets until later in October 2007 and stocks of the new Mondeo will struggle to hit the streets in any sort of volume before Christmas, Ford must be anxious to avoid a repeat of the LR Focus-BA Falcon confusion which played out in September-October 2002.

The emerging most likely scenario is that Ford will provide a sneak preview of the Orion at the Melbourne International Motor Show then follow it up with strong media launch activities extending over the rest of March and into April. This would exploit a sequence and timing similar to this year's Mondeo launch activities which kick off with the Sydney International Motor Show this week.

Such timing would generate ongoing press for the new Falcon starting from the 2008 Melbourne Motor Show's industry preview day, followed by extensive launch coverage which would generate press into April ready for the new model to hit showrooms later that month.

Holden has just employed similar launch timing for its VE Ute range, with media briefings starting in August followed by drive programs in late September with deliveries starting to flow later in October. Ford must be looking enviously at the three-month waiting list this has generated.

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