NEWS
Where to for Holden Commodore?
The future of Australia's favourite big car is all about architecturesSo now we know the Commodore badge continues on beyond 2016 on a brand new car that will be built in Australia underpinned by a new global architecture.
Preliminary work has begun on this car within the bowels of Holden design.
The architecture, or platform, that underpins it will form the basis of a second new model line to be assembled at Holden’s Elizabeth assembly plant in South Australia.
Before that, a new architecture dubbed D2XX will underpin the second generation Cruze family when it enters production in Australia in 2015. The current Cruze employs an architecture called Delta II.
Why is it important to talk about architectures? Because Holden’s deal for government financial support, guaranteeing local manufacturing out to 2022, specifies it will build vehicles based on two global architectures.
Not two vehicles, two architectures. The distinction is important because two architectures can create many different vehicles. For instance, D2XX not only replaces Delta II, but also GM’s Theta compact SUV architecture that underpins the Captiva SUV.
So that means Holden could build Captiva variations here as well as Cruze sedan, hatch and wagon... and more besides. That’s not a hard concept to grasp considering Holden has managed an incredibly diverse production roster of vehicles at Elizabeth over the years.
The current VE and forthcoming VF Commodore’s locally-developed Zeta architecture supports short and long wheelbase sedan, utility and wagon. It is built in left and right-hand drive, is powered by V6 and V8 engines and has the capability to be all- as well as rear-wheel drive – a capability we will certainly never see in production.
Whatever Holden builds going forward it has to continue this diversity if it is to sustain local manufacturing – with or without taxpayer funding. Holden MD Mike Devereux has been on the record for some months now saying that whatever Holden builds has to be a top 10 seller.
Back in the days when 90,000 Commodores rolled off the assembly line annually such decisions were a lot easier to make. Nowadays Holden sells 30,000 Commodores domestically and the number one seller in the market, the Mazda3, sold 44,000 examples in 2012.
Diversity is more important than ever.
The message from within General Motors for some time has been Zeta is not part of the global GM architecture plan. At one stage it was going to be the cornerstone of an affordable global RWD program – being used under the reborn Chevrolet Camaro was evidence of that.
But looming fuel economy regulations, GM’s global contraction and refocus brought upon by its near death experience in 2008-09 meant Zeta’s quest to be a world player foundered. Now it’s judged to be too heavy and too expensive to be developed into a new generation. So officially, Zeta dies when VF does.
But the interesting wrinkle added to the mix in recent months is talk of Zeta continuing as a ‘legacy architecture’.
That would allow Holden to continue building rear-wheel drive V8s to service demand for the new Chev SS and long wheelbase PPV police car in the USA, as well as keeping local lovers of V8 rear-wheel drives happy, something HSV would be pleased with.
The suggestion is that beyond 2016 ongoing Zeta V8s would simply be dubbed SS and drop the Commodore reference, as per Chev. Of course all that depends on there being enough demand here and overseas to justify such a plan. The Chev SS doesn’t go on-sale until the third quarter in the USA, so a green light for such a plan is still many months away.
This is not just media fantasy. Holden boss Mike Devereux and GM North America boss Mark Reuss (a former Holden MD and driver of the Chev SS road and NASCAR race car program) have both discussed this scenario.
The significance of them discussing ‘Zeta legacy’ publicly adds further validation to the belief rear-wheel drive isn’t part of the mainstream post-2016 Commodore plan, something reinforced when you remember the commitment to a new architecture.
So that means a front and all-wheel drive architecture, powered by V6 and four-cylinder engines and smaller and lighter than what we know as Commodore today.
Right now, the only logical architecture option that exists to fulfil that brief is Epsilon II. It underpins a slew of medium and large cars including the Chevrolet Malibu and Impala, Buick Regal and LaCrosse, Cadillac XTS, Opel Insignia and departed Saab 9-5.
Epsilon II has the technical capability to offer multiple wheelbases, engine capacities and configurations and alternate drivetrains.
By 2017 GM is expected to have the next generation of Epsilon in production, referred to in some reports as E2XX (other reports say it is another name for Epsilon II), and that is the architecture most likely to underpin the Commodore name going forward.
Being part of a global family means Commodore will be Holden’s version of a global car, in the same way that Holden and Chevrolet share the Cruze, Barina, Barina Spark, Captiva, Malibu and Trax (the last two launched here this year).
So working on that theory, Commodore will either replace the Malibu in the local lineup or be the renamed Australian version of the Impala. Feasibly, given the merging of medium and large cars in buyers minds, it could do both.
But would the Holden get its own sheetmetal or would it simply have its own nose and tail treatments and badge to differentiate it from the Chev? Holden is working on clays now, so most likely it is pitching ideas for GM’s next-gen large global FWD sedan (and maybe wagon?) against other global GM studios.
Alternatively, as Holden is pushing Commodore upmarket away from the fleet sector, maybe it could opt to use a next-gen Buick as the basis for the next Commodore. That’s the sort of ‘pick and plug-in’ opportunities a global architecture offers. But considering that Opel and Buick have a product sharing relationship, political imperatives could kill off such a plan.
In terms of timing it’s worth noting the next Buick Lacrosse is due in 2016 and the next Malibu in 2018. The latest Impala has been pre-revealed and goes on sale in late 2013.
Epsilon II should also offer Holden the chance to build a mid-sized SUV or cross-over. The return of Commodore Adventra? Well, maybe not the name, but there’s no doubt the frantic rise of SUV sales has Holden contemplating what options it can spin from both global architectures.
Epsilon would not necessarily spell the end of performance models with the Commodore badge either. All-wheel drive and turbo V6 engines provide plenty of entertainment, as the recently launched Opel Insignia OPC proves. No doubt HSV has already made note...
While Epsilon is the most likely course Holden will follow, there is still the chance – hinted at by Holden designers during the media reveal of VF a couple of weeks ago – that rear-wheel drive could survive across the next generation Commodore range.
Reports out of the USA insist that the Alpha rear-wheel drive architecture developed for Cadillac will underpin the next all-new Commodore.
But every time global, affordable rear-wheel drive is connected with future mainstream Commodore production, Holden and GM execs are dismissive. Instead they talk of ‘Zeta legacy’ as an option. Going front-wheel drive seems to make more economic sense for affordable models.
But rear-wheel drive under premium sport luxury and luxury sport (to borrow Holden’s description of its VF model streams) models is more of a chance. While Zeta could carry on for a while, if Chevrolet and Holden are committed to RWD (and V8) performance longer term, then a replacement architecture will have to be found. It would help if Buick and Opel were interested in using such an architecture too.
That would surely mean a platform developed using knowledge gleaned from Alpha.
Alpha – or something derived from it – is headed for the next generation Camaro and could also be employed under a production version of the Code 130R, if GM’s Toyota 86 fighter ever makes it into production.
By 2020 or beyond, cost amortisation and continued robust customer demand might mean another generation of GM RWD performance cars is worth pursuing. Maybe even a new ute for Holden will make sense.
Then again, rising fuel prices and ever-more stringent CAFÉ regs in the USA might have killed off the RWD V8 for good.
So are there other options for the future of Commodore? Well, we don’t know of them but that doesn’t mean they don’t exist. If there’s one thing car companies continues to do, it’s surprise us. That means the 2017 Commodore could be something entirely different to what we have hypothesised here.
We’ll keep you posted.
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Written byBruce Newton
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If the price does not contain the notation that it is "Drive Away", the price may not include additional costs, such as stamp duty and other government charges.
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