A widespread move to electric cars would slash around £1000 ($A1975) from the yearly fuel costs of the average British driver, a new study has found.
In the Fuelling Britain’s Future study, Cambridge Econometrics researchers found that “decarbonizing” the UK car fleet would slash £13 billion ($A25.67b) from private fuel costs.
Applying that data to the Australian car fleet, which at about 16 million is around half the size of Britain's, that would indicate an average saving of almost $1000 for every Aussie driver, even though Australian fuel prices tend to be lower than the British petrol prices.
While the next round of EU CO2 legislation gives the car industry a fleet average target of 95g/km of CO2/km by 2020, the Cambridge Econometrics study stated that moving to electric cars would cut carbon emissions by almost 50 per cent by 2030.
Such a move would also wipe out the dangerous and/or carcinogenic air pollutants, such as diesel particulates and NOx, from fossil fuel-using cars by the middle of the 21st century.
The study said that boosting infrastructure to enable six million electric or low-carbon vehicles onto UK roads by 2030 would cut NOx from cars by 75 per cent and particulate matter from cars by 91 per cent.
"The health benefits associated with these air-quality improvements are estimated to be worth £1 billion to £1.2 billion to the UK economy.”
Further, the report forecasts that if numbers rise to 23 million electric cars on UK roads by 2050, this would see a 95 per cent NOx reduction from cars and a 98% particulate matter reduction.
“The report clearly demonstrates how battery electric vehicles will continue to positively contribute to the economy,” Nissan’s Global Chief Marketability Engineer, Jerry Hardcastle OBE, said in response to the paper.
“Over time it is becoming clear that each battery electric vehicle is an investment in public health as it will also enable the necessary air quality improvements in urban environments,” he said.
UK car prices would also rise from today’s £20,500 ($A40,500) average price, with the addition of fuel-saving technologies, especially plug-in hybrids, expected to add around £1300 ($A2570) to even humble family runabouts.
The huge leap in technology needed to meet 2030’s 43g/km CO2 target would mean a rise in average new car prices (in today’s money) to £23,300 ($A46,000). That cost, though, will be largely offset by massive savings in fuel usage as cost-of-ownership reduces.
“By 2025, pure battery electric vehicles could achieve cost parity with a traditional car and by 2030 fuel cell electric vehicles will also be competitive over their lifetime,” the report insisted.
Far from significantly adding to motoring costs, especially up-front cost, the report concludes that the national cost of car ownership would drop by £8 billion ($A15.8b) by 2030 (in today’s money) and by £20 billion ($A39.5b) by 2050.
The research paper, commissioned by the European Climate Foundation, highlighted the urgent need for the rollout of electric and hydrogen infrastructure to cater for six million electric or plug-in hybrid cars in Britain by 2030 and up to 23 million by 2050.
“There will be a transition in the next five to 10 years, but you won’t see a sudden shift to electric vehicles until consumers have got over their ‘range anxiety’ concerns and that will only happen with infrastructure spending,” one of the study’s authors, Philip Summerton, said.
The British government subsidises electric car sales to the tune of up to £5000 ($A9880) per car, yet in 2012 it successfully lead a rebellion against a €10 billion ($A19.77b) EU proposal to spread more recharging stations around the continent.
The plan would have boosted the number of stations in the UK alone from 703 in 2012 to 1.22 million by 2020 and was defeated on cost grounds.
Yet there is significant pushback against the current lack of infrastructure planning from the car industry and its supplier base.
“It can no longer come as a surprise to anyone that reducing emissions delivers commercial benefits to industry as well as benefits to the environment and consumers,” Michelin’s Head of Government and Public Affairs in the UK, Darren Lindsey, said.
“To maximize those benefits, however, international policymakers have to create a consistent and robust regulatory framework.”
The report also backs up the consistent stance of European car-makers that it is pointless to provide a fleet of electrically driven vehicles if the power source was still coal-fired, but it found that even with a wholesale switch to renewable energy, the cost savings were still valid.
“We assume that electricity generation and hydrogen production are both largely decarbonised by 2030,” Summerton said. “Electricity generation is expected to have a carbon intensity of around 50g/kWh by 2030.
"We assumed hydrogen production methods that include centralised and decentralised electrolysis, with an implied carbon intensity lower than that of grid electricity.”