The local market is beginning to switch on to the small SUV segment – and there's a risk that companies selling medium SUVs will fall foul of this trend.
It's a risk not only from rival brands operating in the small SUV segment, but from within the same stable. This is a problem that potentially confronts Mazda, two months out from the launch of its new CX-3 model (pictured).
Mazda says that it doesn't expect its CX-5 sales base to be eroded when the CX-3 enters the market.
"We actually researched CX-3, CX-5... and Mazda3 and Mazda6 altogether, so that we got a clear picture of everything, rather than just picking individual models and then trying to extrapolate from everything else," explained Alastair Doak, Director of Marketing at Mazda Australia during the launch of the updated CX-5 last week. "It showed that really, the people who buy CX-5 are really in that time of their life where they have got young kids... a pram in the back, a baby seat and all that sort of stuff.
"So CX-3 is really a proper size down on CX5, so there will be minimal impact on [sales] volume from CX-3."
That's not to say that the CX-3 will produce few ripples in the pond when it arrives. According to Doak, Mazda has already received over 20,000 expressions of interest, with 5000 of those prospective buyers who have specifically requested Mazda retail staff get in touch.
"Those numbers are very strong... and that's before we do any kind of solid, pre-launch campaign."
By way of contrast, Mazda2 attracted roughly 4500 prospective buyers in the lead-up to its launch – and the light hatch sold over 13,000 cars last year. On that basis, CX-3 could be a big fish in the small SUV pond.
And as for the possibility CX-5 sales will suffer as buyers desert the mid-size SUV for its smaller sibling, a case in point to support Mazda's view is Ford's experience with the EcoSport and Kuga models.
In 2013 Ford sold just 128 units of EcoSport, which wasn't on sale for the full year. Over the same 12-month period – when it was migrating from old to new model with effect from March – the Kuga sold 3874 units. For the full 12 months of 2014 EcoSport has sold 2200 units and Kuga has sold precisely 2000 more again than in 2013 – 5874 units.
It's difficult to say for sure, but the Ford sales history does provide some corroborating evidence that CX-3 can pick up a lot of sales volume, without detriment to CX-5.