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Ken Gratton8 Jan 2015
NEWS

Toyota sales growth stagnant

Sales forecast for 2015 posits volume hovering around the 2014 total

Toyota Australia's Tony Cramb has cited the company's 12th consecutive year of sales leadership as a triumph for the brand.

At 203,501 vehicles sold during 2014, Toyota's status as the nation's most popular supplier of new cars appears undiminished. That figure places Toyota roughly 97,000 units ahead of second-placed Holden. Toyota can claim the top-selling car in the country in the form of the Corolla. The top-selling LCV is the HiLux. Toyota dominates other VFACTS segments including medium car (Camry), Sports (86), large SUV (LandCruiser 200) and van (HiAce). And the company boasts a trio of 'silver medals' for Yaris, RAV4 and Prado.

But is Toyota's standing in the market on the wane?

Since its peak in 2008 – 238,983 units sold for the year – Toyota's sales have been in steady decline, despite the overall market posting new records most years since then.

Executive Director for Sales and Marketing at Toyota Australia, Tony Cramb, predicts Toyota will sell over 200,000 units again this year. He admits that's a conservative forecast.

"I think it's probably fair to say that we are generally conservative when it comes to forecasting; that's probably a fair comment."

Despite Toyota gearing up for 10 new model releases this year, Cramb doesn't see new product lifting sales significantly higher than last year. New product does generally satisfy a surge in demand, equating to higher sales over the balance of a year, but Cramb cautions that Toyota may not be able to meet that demand anyway.

"New product does bring a revitalisation of sales, often, but you've also got to be able to get supply. Sometimes, we're restricted by supply, which is what happened with RAV4 as an example. It happened with Corolla too.

"We had this wonderful product, perfectly suited to the market, priced really well... couldn't get them.

"You've got to bring the whole pie together, so taking all of those things into consideration, plus the demand that we think is going to be in the market, we anticipate a year that's just as good as this year for us."

In the longer term, however, supply usually catches up with demand, as Toyota's experience in 2011/12 demonstrated, following natural disasters in Japan and Thailand that impeded production for export markets like Australia. And equally, demand usually catches up with supply, as the 2009 post-GFC sales result showed.

By implication, Cramb doesn't believe the closure of the company's Altona manufacturing plant will have much bearing on the company's sales results in the future. It may be recognised by fleet buyers constrained by 'buy Australian' purchasing policies, but by the end of 2017 that sort of policy will be obsolete in the Australian new-car market anyway. In the past, the Toyota boss told motoring.com.au, the company has had to promote the fact that the Camry and Aurion are built here. Suggestions from rivals that Toyota could lose as much as 14 per cent of its current market share in the period following the end of local manufacturing just don't seem plausible in the circumstances.

Apart from the odd global economic crisis and regional natural disaster, Toyota's slow sales decline appears to be a case of brand and product being steadily overtaken by the rest of the market, a point that Cramb admits. 

"The level of competition in the marketplace, and the segments in the marketplace since [2004] have changed – virtually totally. The nature of competition here in Australia is very different. 

"The offering to the Australian market in 2014, compared to 2004, is dramatically different. The choice the consumer has is much wider, and I think in that period of time the competition has improved."

The Mazda3 is a constant threat to the Corolla's sales leadership – and relying solely on private sales, rather than the less profitable fleet sales that shore up Corolla's numbers. Mazda is also forging ahead of Toyota in the light passenger car segment, with Mazda2 beating Yaris. And CX-5 is well ahead of RAV4 among medium SUVs. 

It's not just Mazda of course, Hyundai is charging up fast from behind as well. The Korean brand has sold (just) over 100,000 units in the Australian market for the first time ever. 

Holden has explicitly stated in the past that Toyota is vulnerable. Ford has less explicitly said it would like to take some share away from Toyota. The question left begging is how long it will take for Toyota to surrender to a new sales champ – and who will that be?

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Written byKen Gratton
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