Jamie Whincup will use the first race of the 2020 Supercars championship to announce his future in motorsport this weekend at the Adelaide 500.
Stay or go, or step back to co-driving duties, the GOAT – greatest of all time – is certain to fight in a three-way race for this year’s title against reigning champion Scott McLaughlin in a Ford Mustang and his Red Bull HRT teammate Shane van Gisbergen.
Others will come and go from the podium, but there are only three A+ drivers and two A+ teams and the raft of off-season changes – from Kelly Racing’s new Mustangs to aero tweaks and new shock absorber rules – are unlikely to change things.
Even the death of Holden will not affect the numerical advantage of the red lion logo on the Supercars grid, although there is plenty of potential upheaval on the car front for 2021.
Pre-season testing at Tailem Bend this week has Will Davison at the top of the form guide in a Mustang, but it’s a deceptive picture as both DJR Penske and RBHR avoided the official timing beam and reported that Whincup was quickest, from van Gisbergen, Davison and Fabian Coulthard.
“It’s been a pretty productive day. I’m not happy, but not unhappy either,” reports defending champion McLaughlin from his #17 Mustang, fresh from his first IndyCar drives.
“I’m good. I’m probably less tense than I was last year. I wanted a good back-to-back year and now, with the Bathurst win, I’ve ticked all the boxes.”
McLaughlin is 99 per cent certain to race IndyCar in the USA in 2021 but says a parallel program with four races and testing in America will not affect his burning desire for a three-peat in Supercars.
But Triple Eight Race Engineering has a record 17 wins and 13 pole positions in Adelaide, and Whincup has won the 500 overall a record four times.
And regardless of his finishing position in his 200th Supercars round with T8, by the time the flag falls on Sunday afternoon his future will be clear.
The factory Ford team will take a power of beating, if only to silence the critics who called them cheaters in 2019.
Scott McLaughlin: Starts favourite in Adelaide and for the season, despite potential distraction from a future in IndyCar. Is slimmer and fitter than ever, and dangerously focussed on winning.
Fabian Coulthard: Needs to stop sulking and mount a serious challenge, firstly to McLaughlin and then to his other rivals. He can be quick but motivation and consistency have been missing.
The Roland Dane outfit is filled with talent and hunger, and has the fastest and most consistent Commodores
Jamie Whincup: Not young but still the benchmark over a season. Could easily land an eighth title.
Shane van Gisbergen: Towering talent with bullying bluster in any battle, but yet to claim a crown alongside the super-polished GOAT.
Strong at times, lost at others, with too much family feuding. Not stable enough against the two top teams.
Will Davison: Will be super-quick at times but without the all-round toughness to fight for the championship.
Cam Waters: Still young, definitely speedy, a likely race winner but not a title contender.
Lee Holdsworth: Took a while to learn the Mustang in 2019, solid but not a stand-out.
Jack Le Brocq: A make-or-break year for Chaz Mostert’s replacement.
The second-best Commodore team marked time last year, needs to shift up a gear this time.
David Reynolds: Fast with fun, but far more determined than most people know. Should win races.
Anton de Pasquale: Will apply the blowtorch to Reynolds, also a potential winner, before a team switch in 2021.
A wholesale driver clean-out could move them out of the midfield, but few signs yet of the missing spark.
Chaz Mostert: Last chance to become a title contender after too many years at Tickford. Huge talent, great speed.
Bryce Fullwood: On the fast-track to a top team, needing to learn lots with a Mostert as a handy target.
The Albury family squad is packed with racers, but lacking the cash and polish of the front-runners.
Nick Percat: Skilful for sure, and staying until 2022, so should have the stability to push for regular top 10s.
Todd Hazelwood: Often shows speed, rarely delivers at the finish, perhaps needs some coaching.
Macauley Jones: Must move up from the tailenders to prove he is worth a full-time ride.
Jack Smith: Unlikely to show much in his rookie year.
No excuses now the Nissans have been replaced by Ford Mustangs in a more manageable two-car squad.
Rick Kelly: A veteran but still with a point to prove and enough ability for regular top 10s.
Andrew Heimgartner: Should be a star with proven pace and potential for podiums.
Great looking cars, ambitious leadership, but yet to unlock the secret to success.
Mark Winterbottom: A faded former champion who rarely shows his old spark.
Scott Pye: Looking for a rebound after tough times at Walkinshaw, and still young with skill.
Everyone starts somewhere but MSR will not find the year easy.
Garry Jacobson: Has shown promise but faces a lots of challenges.
Zane Goddard: Will be down the back.
Team Sydney program has started poorly, despite great looking Coke racing colours.
James Courtney: Still believes he can be a contender, but will need more help than he got at Walkinshaw.
Chris Pither: Lively bloke, better than some, but faces the same uphill battle as Courtney.